Friday, December 3, 2010

Top 15 Catching Prospects

Each prospect ranking list factors in players who are currently at those positions. Player moves won't be factored in until they are actually made. As these lists will be updated throughout the year, you may see some big movement from previous lists. As this is a fantasy ranking list, defensive ability does not play a large roll in the rankings, and upside is valued higher than floor. As for ETA's, these are rough estimates of when I think the player will establish themselves as part of the teams lineup. Anything four plus years out is just left as the year.

Follow the jump for the rankings!


1. Jesus Montero - NYY - ETA: Early 2011
Montero's bat is unquestionable. He hits for average. He hits for power. He'll take enough walks to get by. The only thing standing in his way from catching is, well, catching. At 6'4 225, Montero doesn't have the prototypical catchers body, and his receiving skills are about as good as a piece of plywood. Look for him to catch for the Yankees for this year, at least splitting time with Jorge Posada. Out past this year, its likely Montero will be relegated to DH and only catch an occasional game. For most fantasy league, he'll need to hit 10 games in season to qualify, so you might be able to play him at catcher out past the next two years, but that's a big might.

2. Wil Myers - KC - ETA: Late 2012
Like Montero, Myers is a bat first prospect at this point. That bat, though, as a 19 year old in A and High-A ball was massive. Myers succeeded in an environment that saw the likes of Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer fail their first times through, so that in itself is very encouraging. Reports I read throughout the year were encouraging towards Myers' defensive improvements, so I'd like to see KC leave him behind the plate for at least half the upcoming season. The OF is his likely destination if his receiving skills don't improve quickly, but he is athletic enough to play a good RF, and his bat could play anywhere.

3. Wilin Rosario - COL - ETA: Early 2012
Reports on progress from his ACL surgery have been encouraging. Rosario has a massive arm and great catching skills, so he's probably the highest true catching prospect on this list. His bat is equally impressive as his arm is. In just 270 AB's last season at AA, Rosario belted 19 HR's. Looking down the road, it's not hard to envision 25-30 HR's at the ML level coming from him, especially playing half his home games at Coors. I imagine Colorado will leave him at AAA all season to polish his skills, and he should start 2012 as the Rockies starting catcher.


4. Derek Norris - WAS - ETA: Late 2012
Norris has one of the broadest skill sets of all the players on this list. He gets on base at a ridiculous clip (over .400 OBP last three years) while carrying an average BA (.278, .286, .235 last three years). Norris has also recovered from his Hamate bone injury, and showed off his power towards the end of the season and on into the AFL. Expect him to either supplant Wilson Ramos (more on him later) as Washington's catcher or move to 1B at the ML level, where his bat will go from above average to just average.


5. Hank Conger - LAA - ETA: Early 2011
Conger is an interesting beast. He's hit within .019 points of 300 every minor league season so far. 3/4 of his full seasons have ended with 11 HR's, the only outlier being a 13 HR season. Conger is a strong guy, so as his swing matures and reaches its full potential, he could be around 18-20 HR's, all while proving a very nice BA from a catcher.

6. Devin Mesoraco - CIN - ETA: Late 2011
Mesoraco's breakout season has been well documented. 26 HR's in under 400 AB's. .302 BA across three levels. Better defensive reports. After being a top pick for the Reds, he scuffled for three seasons, but has finally turned it on. As long as he can keep up the power stroke and keep his plate discipline around what it was this year, Mesorasco will be a good third tier fantasy catcher in the very near future.

7. Gary Sanchez - NYY - ETA: 2014
This Sanchez is one of the players on this list that you can really dream on. 8 HR's in 173 AB's this year show his immense power potential, while his catching skills have gotten high reviews. Sanchez just turned 18 this month, so his projection is literally through the roof. He's quickly supplanted Austin Romine as the Yankees "catcher of the future," the only question is how soon will that future get here.

8. Tony Sanchez - PIT - ETA: Mid 2012
Drafted as the fourth overall pick of the 2009 draft, many saw Sanchez as a vast overdraft, but the returns for the Pirates have been very encouraging thus far. Sanchez had a great debut and came out of the gates quickly this year before a broken jaw ended his season prematurely. He did return in time for the AFL where he showed some rust, but also a nice power stroke. He probably won't be a star, but he'll be a solid catcher for years.

9. JP Arencebia - TOR - ETA: Early 2011
Arencebia had one of the most memorable ML debuts in recent memory, a 4-5 game with a double and two HR's. His power is legit, though his contact skills are still in question. I see him as a .260 hitter with 20+ HR skill in any given season, with some spiking higher than that on both BA and dingers.

10. Max Stassi - OAK - ETA: 2014
With a projectable bat that was 1st round worthy in the 2009 draft, Stassi fell into the A's lap in the 4th round. He only hit .229 this year in the Midwest League, but over 1/3 of his hits went for extra bases. It takes some dreaming, but Stassi could blossom into one of the top prospects on this list a year from now with some work on his plate discipline, and he could just as easily move close to obscurity.

11. Wilson Ramos - WAS - ETA: Early 2011
Ramos stalled a little last year while he was with the Twins, but after moving to the Nats, he looked like the hitter he had been prior to the start of 2010. He, like Tony Sanchez, will never be a star in the league. He'll have to come out strong just to hold off Derek Norris, but he has the chance to be another cornerstone on the Washington roster that looks like it's moving in the right direction.

12. Sebastian Valle - PHI - ETA: Mid 2013
Valle is a personal favorite of mine. His power potential can match anybody on this list except Montero. He's a classic low OBP, high SLG catcher that really plays in fantasy. He has no roadblocks in Philadelphia, and could be their starter as early as 2013. He's one to really keep an eye on because he very well could take the mold of Wilin Rosario a year from now.

13. Carlos Perez - TOR - ETA: 2014
Perez is a very young player, but his plate discipline is among the top three or four at the catcher position. The rest of his game, though, is still projections, which isn't necessarily bad for a 20 year old catcher. Toronto has a good problem on their hands with three players making the list and HM, when there are quite a few organizations that don't have a catching prospect worth mentioning. Needless to say, it will be at least another year if we know if Perez will amount to much, but this year in full season ball should be a fun one to watch.

14. Yasmani Grandal - CIN - ETA: Late 2012
Grandal is the highest ranking 2010 draftee, just beating out Justin O'Conner. He is the type of player who should move very quickly through the Reds minor league system and provide them with a tough choice between he and Mesorasco. Grandal won't be elite in either average or power, but he should be a good fantasy catcher when its all said and done. He'll also move quickly up my list with a good full season debut next year.

15. Justin O'Conner - TB - ETA: 2015
O'Conner was my favorite catching prospect from this year's draft, but his rawness keeps him down on the ranking board. His bat and arm both can be elite tools, and his raw power is also a big plus. The Rays haven't had as much success developing bats as the have arms, but I think O'Conner is a project that only needs some minor tinkering and he could quickly become one of the elite options at catcher.

HM: Austin Romine - NYY - ETA: Late 2012, Kyle Skipworth - FLA - ETA: Late 2012, Christian Bethancourt - ATL - ETA: 2015, Travis D'Arnaud - TOR - ETA: Mid 2013

Deep Sleepers: Tomas Telis - TEX - ETA: 2015, Tommy Joseph - SF - ETA: 2014, Kellin Deglan - TEX - ETA: 2015

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